They say that the cars of the next generation will embody
the following two prophecies of Dr. Kaku.
Computer Forecast 14 (~2030): Automatic driving on highways
by GPS and Central Computer with no traffic jam.
Energy Forecast 57 (~2030): Cars using electric batteries and
hydrogen fuel cells become prevalent.
Autonomous or self-driving cars are already available in the
military applications and the test driving of the passenger cars. For example,
on May 1, 2012, a 22 km (14 mi) driving test was administered with a
Google self-driving car by State of Nevada motor Vehicle examiners in a test
route in the city of Las Vegas. In
order to make this technology available for commercial use, the automotive
industry must expand their supply chains to the electric and IT industries. Also,
the governments must put new regulatory Infra-structures in place. Although
these are not easy tasks, they can be certainly accomplished in the next 15
years or so, I believe.
Replacing gasoline inner combustion engines with hydrogen
fuel cells will come earlier than self-driving, as it does not require involvements
with IT technology and regulatory infra-structures. For example, ToyotaFCHV(Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicle)s have been made available to a limited
commercial use since 2002. It may launch
commercially in the next few years, as some more hydrogen supply stations are
put in place.
It is going to be a very interesting race for three major
car manufacturing nations, USA, Japan and Germany. While Japan might be leading
the other two in Safety (stability & quality), Germany might be leading in
auto electronic parts (Bosch & Continental AG) and USA is definitely a
leader in IT (Google & Apple). It is possible that new international
alliances across the national borders could be formed among major automotive
companies towards the next generation of smart and environmentally friendly
autos. I only hope that Japanese auto industry do not repeat the fiasco of
Japanese electric industry that have lost momentum in the race of the electric
evolution.
The FCHV-adv
(Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicle advanced) was the fifth vehicle built by Toyota Fuel
Cell Vehicle Development Program. 